The Wall Street recorded strong volatility at Thursday's meeting, with shares and oil constantly changing direction, as investors were trying to decode conflicting messages on the US-Iran deal prospects for ending the war and restoring energy flows through critical Ormuz Strait.
Eventually after continuous rotations all three indicators managed to «Close» on positive ground and even with Dow Jones recording a new historical record!
In particular, the Dow Jones It was increased by 0.55% to the new high of 50,285 units, S&P 500 increased 0.17% to 7.445 units and Nasdaq added 0.09% to 26,293 units.
Climate change also affected the bond market, with state titles recovering, erasing previous losses, So returns lost ground with 10 years retreating to 4.57%, thus extending the fall from the level over 4.68% that it had touched two days ago, which was the highest since January 2025. The performance of the 30-year-old who had ejected into a high two-decade split to 5.09%.
«Bond odds move like "son-son" this week, following alternate expectations of an agreement with Iran», explained Subandra Rajapa, of Societe Generale Americas.
At today's meeting the shares had started the day with losses, but the climate changed following Marco Rubio's statements that there is progress in the talks, but also the information of Iranian media and the Al-Arabiya network that both sides have reached a draft peace agreement, which will be announced in the next few hours.
The draft seems to include immediate ceasefire on all fronts, ensuring free navigation in the Persian Gulf and the Straits of Hormuz, as well as opening negotiations on pending issues within a week.
Although the news was not officially confirmed, it was enough to revive investors' hopes. It is typical that oil prices also retreated, with Brent losing a little over 2% at $102.58 a barrel.
Earlier Tehran had said that the last US proposal partially covers the gap between the two sides, however the statements of Iran's supreme leader, Mojtaba Hameney, regarding the conservation of stocks of enriched uranium, but also the disagreement over the imposition of tolls in the Straits of Ormuz, had clouded the landscape.
Fears that a prolonged shutdown of the Straits could aggravate energy disturbances and fuel inflation have boosted the estimates that central banks may be forced to go on increasing interest rates.
The issue also dealt with the Fed at its last meeting, as the minutes published yesterday showed, with the majority of officials now considering increasing interest rates as long as rising energy prices maintain inflation above the 2% target.
JPMorgan Chase chief, Jamie Demon, warned in statements that interest rates may move much higher, sending a message of concern to bond investors at a time when returns are already moving to perennial highs.
«Interest rates could be much higher than today.», Daimon stressed on Bloomberg television. «Maybe we've gone through a super-saving bid in a situation where there aren't enough savings».
Although processing activity in the U.S. has recorded the largest rise in the last four years, many analysts consider it a temporary boost, as customers are quick to catch up with the new wave of valuations.
Indeed, in another indication of the effects of the war on business, Walmart warned that increased fuel costs are pushing its profit margins and may lead to higher prices for consumers.
In the corporate field, Nvidia was found in the epicenter. The largest listed company in the world announced results better of estimates in both revenue and profits, while forecasts for the current quarter also exceeded expectations. However, it is clear that investors are now difficult to impress, while of course they have good reason to worry about the exports of microchip to China.
Shareholders were not even convinced by the significant increase in remuneration to investors, including the large increase in the dividend and the significant share repurchase programme.
«Investors ask for everything from Nvidia», said AJ Bell's head of purchases, Dan Coachworth. «Despite the fact that the company again exceeded the estimates, the share was pushed because of concerns about the viability of the growth rate».
More important news of the day was the Trump administration's decision to move on to $2 billion investment in nine quantum technology companies, also acquiring share shares, in an attempt to boost American dominance in a critical technological sector towards China. The main beneficiaries are IBM and GlobalFoundries, which was seen in ejecting their shares, as well as more widely in the quantum technology industry, with names such as D-Wave, Quantum Computing and IonQ.
A strong rise of more than 13% also recorded Spotify after the guidance announced by horizon until 2030, but also the agreement in the field of AI in which she ended up with Universal Music.
Notable is the rebound of the rare land sector, after news of USA Rare Earth's new funding from the American Energy Ministry with $11.3 million.
On the contrary Walmart retreated by about 7%. The American retail giant exceeded estimates in quarterly revenue, but kept forecasts for the whole year unchanged.
«We absorbed about $175 million of extra fuel costs in global distribution and logistics activities», said Walmart's financial director, John David Rainey. «If increased costs are maintained, we expect higher retail inflation in the second quarter and in the second half», he warned.
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