«The ballot box is knocked up.»Charilaos Florakis used to say. And he was right.
A recent example in Germany where everyone expected a rise in the far right AfD, but no one expected the unrealistic 43.8% in the local elections of the Saxon state - Anhalt that brought political earthquake.
But that's what politics has. Churchill once won the Second World War but lost immediately after the United Kingdom election to a Clement Atley.
And Trump, when he was 78, won a second term in the U.S. when everyone had him written down.
In Greece we are 7-8 months before the election, but at the moment nothing forewarns such dramatic changes. Not a far-right march that even those who once co-ruled with her are supposed to be concerned about. The sky is no use at all.
The ND records corruption and is currently away from self-reliance, but maintains a stable core close to 30% and a large difference from the second. And no serious analyst doubts her first. That is why the polling companies have now stopped publishing measurements for the victory performance.
There may be grins in some, as well as dissatisfaction with the accuracy, housing, immigration and other individual aspects of government policy. But «rollover current» We don't see. Neither does any of the opposition raise the crowds.
Nevertheless, optimism in some there is spare.
Androuliakis is still talking about «win with one vote difference», Tsipras for «second ballot», Velopoulos for «first», the Karistian duo – Gracia for «self-reliance». A recent man who declared his friend Samaras appeared and who, after comparing him to Andreas Papandreou, advised us not to be surprised if his party came first. A party currently nonexistent.
No argument and no pleasure. When the time comes, everyone will count their own size. And then he will march on his way.
One thing is certain.
As a well-known surveyor said, the next election will prove a party cemetery.
Count heads and candidates: Victory, Spartans, New Left, Kasselakis Party, Syriza. Manny mani five nomads preparing to move a handkerchief.
But also many who are at the edge of the razor such as Konstantopoulou, Varoufakis, Latinopoulou, Karistianou.
If there's a Samara party, it'll probably stir the deck. But it is not at all certain that this will enter the House with the polarization that will exist.
But fragmentation is unprecedented metapolitical. The 53 independent Members, who have left and deleted, are proving this with the above.
The second sure thing is that as long as we move on to the election, things will get serious. And dilemmas will become relentless, let alone if there is a crisis with Turkey on the field.
The international environment is more fluid than ever and stable now do not exist.
The war in Ukraine entered the fifth year, the crisis with Iran was revived, paranoia in the US dominates with Trump threatening Europe and Canada, claiming Greenland and changing place names on maps daily, England changes prime ministers like shirts, Germany is probably also entering a political crisis of unknown duration, in France the far right-wing lie ante portas in the elections that will take place next year, in Spain the Sanchez government is being shaken by scandals but also the crisis with the invasion of Ceuta where it demonstrated parabolic inactivity and incompetence.
And in such an environment, the last thing it would have to do would be to get into a prolonged political instability.
I don't know how many people the argument, Mitsotakis, will ultimately convince the country that it needs stability and self-sufficient governments. He'll show up at the applause.
But all I know is that whenever there was a power vacuum, the country paid dearly.
In '74 half Cyprus was lost, in '96 Imia greyed. Let's hope now it doesn't. Because with the self-destruction that distinguishes us, we'd better make our cross.
