A strange question arises as the world community awefully monitors the devastating consequences of the war in Iran: can such a painful war eventually bring about a healthier economic reality? Despite current despair and enormous human costs, this historic crisis obliges people to abandon obsolete structures.
This forced «restart» through disaster it may be the springboard for fundamental reforms, making the international system more shielded against future shocks.
It is almost certain that the war will shield and diversify the energy supply chain as a result, preventing a single 23-mile- wide water route from becoming a point of entrapment for the global economy and allowing Iran to interrupt the operation of the global oil market.
And the deeper the economic recession, the greater the incentive to make the necessary changes, notes CNN.
Bypass of Hormuz
OPEC – from which Emirates have already left – may shrink further. or dissolve, where appropriate, reduce oil and gas prices.
The energy supply chain could become stronger, with ducts that will completely bypass Ormuz.
And the world could accelerate its transition to renewable energy sources, reducing global dependence on fossil fuels.
Shielding the energy supply chain
The war revealed significant structural defects in the global energy supply chain – a complex, interconnected system that tries to balance between economic security and the operating economy.
The fact that Iran could so easily interrupt world access to a fifth of world oil with some mines, improvised drones and speedboats will require serious revisions – and permanent changes.
Manufacture of land pipelines
The most likely result is that the Middle East will build oil and gas pipelines that pass through Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, to bypass the strait completely.
«The countries They're not fools: They will develop pipelines and increase their capacity massively.», said Jay Hatfield of Infrastructure Capital Advisors. «Nobody He's never going to bet his entire future on the Strait of Hormuz again. This will be a huge positive development.».
This would mean that energy supply could be safer – and cheaper – in the long term, as ships shall bear the high cost of insurance premiums accompanying the passage from dangerous marine areas.
«Often required shock»
«Often shock or unexpected exogenous events are required to strengthen the belief that things must change», said Ross Mayfield, a strategic investment analyst at Baird.
The examples of pandemic and Russian-Ukrainian war
We have seen such shifts several times only in this decade. After the pandemic, the global supply chains of processing collapsed and then strengthened Important. Russia's war with Ukraine It changed the way Europe supplied its gas.
Customs duties Donald Trump led to massive shifts in the supply of raw materials.
Resistance to the energy supply chain could not come at a better time: Global demand for energy has become insatiable. Technology companies build energetic artificial intelligence data centers At vertigo.
The ability of OPEC to impose production quotas is weakened
Some economic changes have already begun to consolidate. OPEC – the United States' main competitor in fossil fuels – has begun to shake. The United Arab Emirates, the second largest OPEC member in oil production, said they would leave the cartel, weakening the Agency's ability to impose production quotas that keep prices at high levels.
«The diversification of production away from OPEC is expected to improve global energy security and help stabilise prices over time», said Rob Thamel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital.
The transition to solar energy is also in full progress in many parts of the world because It is not the case that the European Parliament has been given the right to vote in favour of this report.
Chinese exports of products «green» technology, batteries and electric vehicles recorded historical records in March, according to the think tank on Ember energy.
Not all changes are positive
The optimistic results are certainly not assured. The Iranian regime could become even more radical and determined to harm the United States, Israel and their allies.
If the Straits of Ormuz become less critical, Iran and its proxy could threaten other channels and pipelines in the future, Heather Long, chief economist of the Navy Federal Credit Union, noted.
The dissolution of OPEC may sound positive. However, the organization has produced more oil in recent months and the abolition of the cartel reduces the possibility of people acting coordinatedly during a future global energy crisis.
The changes resulting from the war's account with Iran can be more favorable to some than others.
For example, a shift towards renewable energy sources and if demand for oil is reduced in the long term, its prices could fall below pre-war levels, hitting the industry.
naftemporiki. gr
preferred source on Google
To show more articles by Maritime in your searches easily and quickly, you must add the site to your preferred sources. You can do it by going Here..
