The file for early repayments of Greece's loan obligations to the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) is being prepared to open – even within the year, the ODEX planning the discount of 2.5 – 3 billion euros.
After the repayment of loans to the International Monetary Fund, but also the launching of the repayment of bilateral loans – the so-called GLF – ten years earlier than the planned time, i.e. by the end of 2030 instead of 2040-2041, a new cycle of early repayments is opened.
Greece must return «Chapter» 1.7 to 1.8 billion euros in EFSF every year up to 2070. So the aim is to make use of the liquidity available to the country – and at the moment the cash is at EUR 40 billion. That is why the early repayment of bilateral loans of EUR 6.9 billion has been launched for June, so that:
Fuel the decline in debt-to-GDP ratio. Limit the amount of annual financing needs, so that, if there are ups and downs in the yields of the bonds due to exceptional circumstances, there is no pressure to issue a bond to cover immediate needs.
The main goal of the DADEX for this year is to ensure that the ratio of debt to GDP will fall below 137%, as this is the percentage that opens the way for Greece to lose the first place in Europe based on the ratio of debt to GDP.
With this in mind, the start of the early repayment process for the EFSF will be directly linked to whether there will be a new exit of Greece to the markets within the year. This, in turn, is directly related to market conditions.
The financial programme
Greece has prepared a financial programme of EUR 8 billion for this year. At present, this has been completed by half.
The second edition of a new bond was scheduled to take place within March, but was postponed due to force majeure. Given that the Middle East war had already broken out, returns were launched for all European bonds.
The Greek 10-year period even reached over 4%, while today it is 3.8%. The ODE does not need to be on the market, as cash assets remain at the extremely high levels of EUR 40 billion.
If the financial programme is finally decided to be completed and a second bond is issued within 2026, then the money to be raised – about EUR 2.5 to EUR 3 billion – will be allocated to repay the obligations to the EFSF.
With such a version, doses to the EFSF of even two years are repaid prematurely.
EFSF loans
The liabilities to the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) are the hard core of Greece's loan portfolio.
From the second memorandum, an economic obligation was created which at the end of 2025 had a remaining EUR 125,695 billion.
After the extension decided at the Eurogroup in June 2018 – the meeting that marked the exit of Greece from the era of the Memoranda – the repayment period of these obligations extends until 2070.
For the period up to 2037, the amounts to be paid annually to the EFSF amount to EUR 1.7 billion to EUR 1.8 billion.
Any early repayments initiated will mainly concern «close» The aim is to remain as long as possible. «light» the country's annual financing programme.
Just because of the reduced financial needs and cash reserves, Greece can enjoy greater freedom of movement and choice in times of uncertainty about international markets, such as the one we are going through.
Early repayments
The first early repayment of 2026 will be that of June. EUR 6.9 billion will be paid for bilateral loans for the first memorandum and this will at the same time occur two things:
A. It will run out of time «hard pillow» created in 2018.
B. The balance of bilateral loans will fall below 20 billion euros.
The total repayment of these liabilities – which will also bring the final closure of the first memorandum – will be in four annual instalments.
In practice, Greece is the target in 2031:
- no longer owes directly to the Eurozone countries,
- debt ratio to GDP approaching 110%;
- and the credit assessment has reached – or at least has reached – the «A», something that has to happen since 2008.
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