New vote of confidence in the Greek economy by DBRS, which proceeded to upgrade the outlook from «fixed» In «positive», maintaining the credit assessment in the BBB. In this way, the Canadian house sent a clear message that the next step on the rating scale has come closer.
The change in outlook is a recognition of the progress made mainly on the budgetary front and the rapid deescalation of public debt, two factors that are firmly at the heart of international house ratings. Continued achievement of primary surpluses and early repayment policy strengthen the Greek credit profile and gradually limit one of the country's most important time-consuming weaknesses.
The decision becomes more important as it comes into a much more difficult international environment, with geopolitical tensions, increased energy costs and inflationary pressures burdening the prospects of the European economy. At the same time, the challenges associated with external imbalances and, above all, with Greece's ability to maintain the current growth dynamics after the recovery fund is completed.
What the report says
The DBRS house revised the outlook of the Greek Republic's long-term ratings in foreign and domestic currency in a positive way and confirmed the BBB ratings.
At the same time, Morningstar DBRS revised the outlook of Greece's short-term ratings in foreign and domestic currency in a positive way, confirming the R-2 (high) rating.
Key factors in the assessment
The change in trends reflects Morningstar DBRS' assessment that Greece's public debt ratio to GDP will continue to decrease significantly over the coming years.
The European Commission predicts that the general government's gross public debt will decline from 143.5 % of GDP in March 2026 to 134.4% at the end of 2027, as the growth potential of the economy is expected to remain relatively strong and the government is expected to continue to record significant primary surpluses.
The Greek economy has so far effectively endured the energy shock of prices, while tourist arrivals continued to increase significantly during the first half of the year.
On an annual basis, the European Commission plans to develop real GDP by 1.8% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027.
Improving budgetary performance
Greece's fiscal performance has improved significantly in recent years, as state budgets have benefited not only from strong economic growth, but also from structural reforms that have strengthened tax compliance and broadened the country's tax base.
Although the government has adopted some expansion measures this year, such as income tax reductions, fiscal performance is expected to remain strong.
The European Commission expects the government's primary surplus to be 4% of GDP in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027, compared with 4.9% in 2025.
Political risk limited
Although current political polls show that there can be a difficult period of government formation after the next parliamentary elections, Morningstar DBRS estimates that political risk remains limited, as there is broad consensus among key political parties on important policy issues.
What supports the BBB assessment
Greece's BBB ratings are based on the improved financial situation of the domestic banking sector, the country's reliable policy framework and its participation in the European Union and the Eurozone.
The successive Greek governments have implemented major reforms that have strengthened governance, improved the business environment and supported debt sustainability.
However, Greece’s ratings are still limited by:
the high level of public debt;
the comparatively low level of labour productivity,
the small size of the economy, which makes it more vulnerable to external disturbances.
In addition, external imbalances, such as the chronic deficit in the current account account, burden the country's credit profile.
Factors that can lead to upgrade
Morningstar DBRS could proceed with an upgrade of Greece's credit rating if one or a combination of the following occurs:
The ratio of public debt to GDP is generally reduced in line with expectations in the short term and continues to follow a steady downward path in the medium term, based on strong budgetary results.
The implementation of reforms that strengthen investment continues, improving the long-term prospects for the development of the Greek economy.
DBRS' upgrading of prospects now increases interest in the remaining ratings by the end of the year. Moody’s and Scope take the baton on 18 September, followed on 23 October by Standard & Poor’s, with Fitch closing the 2026 rating cycle on 6 November.
Source: Newmoney. gr
