The country faces a deep political and economic crisis, with significant social implications.
No coincidence that in the episodes the Muslim element stars, young mainly second and third generation immigrants, French citizens now. If you look at the scenes in the videos, you'll understand.
France is now in a deep budgetary problem. Public debt has exceeded 110% of GDP, the state deficit is still far from the European 3% of GDP target (it is 5.4%), pensions, Health, social benefits and the functioning of the state absorb huge resources. But they are not enough and do not satisfy anyone, even though they are one of the highest in the eurozone.
Its development is anaemic, just 0.4%, and its industry faces high costs, international competition and productivity growth difficulties. The cost of borrowing the French State has reached about 25 years of age, with the yield of the ten-year bond approaching 5%, while the Greek is at 4.3%.
Thus, today France is faced with a difficult economic and social dilemma, it needs to limit spending and deficits, while large sections of society are calling for better public services, greater purchasing power and pension protection. Does this all ring a bell? (We'll come back down.)
So this contradiction is crucial to the country's political situation. The ground is now suitable for challenging traditional parties and strengthening antisystemic political narratives, both of the Right and the Left. More importantly, the economic crisis is no longer limited to «State accounts», but, as a natural consequence, it affects investor confidence, citizens' everyday life and ultimately the ability of any government to implement its programme.
All right, France that is burning today certainly has not gone bankrupt, but is facing a serious political, economic and therefore social crisis.
Under normal circumstances it seems to need something like a memorandum on Greek, for now without the situation having taken the form of an avalanche, as happened in spring 2010 in Greece. But the evil unfortunately comes to them.
It is today in Europe the most typical example of a country losing contact with its citizens. The economic asphyxiation, the collapse of public services, the rage of young people and the weakness of the political centre create the ideal environment for the rise of limbs.
Anyone who wants to understand how a large, rich and democratic European country can come to hand over power to the far right (because this is... fashion in this historical period), has nothing but to attend what is happening today in France. Lepin's on her way.
A country with huge history, strong economy, global cultural influence and deep democratic traditions is again faced with a widespread social explosion. The mobilizations evolved into conflicts, arrests, injuries and disasters. And a whole society is helpless with another cycle of violence.
How the French got there is like carbon, much larger, with Greece, with how we got to bankruptcy. For years the French State has spent more than it collects, accumulated debts and postponed difficult decisions. For decades.
This is where the vicious circle begins. The state has no money for better schools, more efficient services and more social benefits. Citizens see their everyday lives getting worse, while still paying high taxes. Young people feel that they will live worse than their parents. And governments respond with promises they know they cannot keep. And everybody messes with everybody. The perfect recipe for chaos and triumph of the Acres.
Emmanuel Macron was elected nearly ten years ago as the man who would overcome the old ideological divisions and modernise France. Today he completes his term leaving behind a deeply divided society and a political centre that has difficulty convincing even his traditional supporters.
Στο κενό αυτό έρχονται να εγκατασταθούν αυτά τα δύο άκρα. Η ριζοσπαστική Αριστερά του Ζαν-Λυκ Μελανσόν επιχειρεί να εκφράσει την κοινωνική οργή, επενδύοντας στη σύγκρουση με το κατεστημένο. Η Ακροδεξιά της Μαρίν Λε Πεν ακολουθεί διαφορετικό δρόμο. Υπόσχεται τάξη, ασφάλεια, έλεγχο της μετανάστευσης και επιστροφή σε μια υποτιθέμενη χαμένη κανονικότητα. Κι εδώ βρίσκεται η μεγάλη πολιτική παγίδα. Όσο περισσότερο οι πολίτες βλέπουν εικόνες χάους, καμένων αυτοκινήτων και συγκρούσεων με την Αστυνομία τόσο περισσότερο ενισχύεται το ακροατήριο εκείνων που υπόσχονται ότι θα βάλουν τέλος στην αταξία. Ακόμη κι αν οι προτάσεις τους είναι απλουστευτικές, ακόμη κι αν δεν διαθέτουν πραγματικές λύσεις για την οικονομία και την κοινωνία.
Η Ακροδεξιά δεν χρειάζεται πάντοτε να πείσει ότι έχει καλύτερο πρόγραμμα. Της αρκεί να πείσει ότι οι υπόλοιποι απέτυχαν. Όπως και η Αριστερά, γιατί τα ίδια δεν έγιναν εδώ την προηγούμενη δεκαετία, πώς άραγε βγήκε ο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ;
Αυτό είναι το μεγαλύτερο πρόβλημα για τη Γαλλία, αλλά και μια σοβαρή προειδοποίηση για ολόκληρη την Ευρώπη. Διότι οι κοινωνίες δεν στρέφονται μαζικά στα άκρα από τη μια μέρα στην άλλη. Προηγούνται χρόνια απογοήτευσης, οικονομικής ανασφάλειας, υποβάθμισης των δημόσιων υπηρεσιών και πολιτικής αλαζονείας. Προηγείται η αίσθηση ότι οι κυβερνήσεις δεν ακούν, ότι οι ελίτ ζουν σε έναν διαφορετικό κόσμο και ότι η δημοκρατική εναλλαγή της εξουσίας δεν αλλάζει ουσιαστικά τίποτε.
Τότε η ψήφος παύει να είναι επιλογή εμπιστοσύνης και μετατρέπεται σε πράξη τιμωρίας. Έτσι ακριβώς όπως συνέβη από το 2010 μέχρι το 2019 στην Ελλάδα. Και μη χειρότερα!
