The Apostle Manthus
The EUR 4,945 and capitalization about EUR 216,3 million, Thracian Plastics (PLH) still under a stock limit that starts to cause reasonable questions.
The EUR 5 has almost turned into a roof for a company whose subsequent uses are expected to have very different characteristics profitability, from those justifying such a low valuation.
The debate therefore does not need to go back to the already known results. About €80 million investments have already been made, the capex is significantly declining, the EBITDA is heading towards €65 million and a much larger part of the operating profitability is expected to turn into free cash flows.
In 2024 and 2025 the group spent a total of around €80 million in investments. For a company with today's capitalization €The Commission has decided to grant aid totalling ECU 216,3 million to the steel industry. 37% of its stock value. These costs were directed towards production potential, new lines, technology, automation and higher value added products.
But now the bill is changing.
From about €40 million per year in 2024-2025, Eurobank Equities calculates capex in €25.1 million in 2026; €20.5 million in 2027 and €20 million in 2028. In the same three years EBITDA is projected to rise from €56.9 million ECU €61.8 million and finally €64.8 million.
This combination is worth a lot greater caution from another target value.
Capex is almost doubled by its high and EBITDA continues to rise.
The difference begins to descend to the register. Eurobank calculates operating cash flow €39.1 million this year, €45,1 million in 2027 and €53.2 million in 2028. The custom FCF passes through €4.9 million this year in €23.5 million in 2027 and €32.1 million in 2028.
Here. €4,945 are starting to get really annoying.
With today's capitalization €216,3 million, €23.5 million corresponds to forward FCF yeeld about 10.9% for 2027A year later, €32.1 million are mathematically raising the yield to 14,8%.
And the group that year is expected to have a net loan just €31.8 million, Net Debt/EBITDA 0.5x and EBITDA near €65 million
Let's look at it in stock market terms.
The current market is asking for some €216 million for a company which, according to Eurobank estimates, can produce in two years over €30 million free cash flow per yearAt the same time, having drastically reduced its toil.
This is far more essential than saying that an analyst has raised fair value to €8.
And the market still keeps her under €5.
Appreciating strangers further increases the question of devaluation on the dashboard. For 2026 Thrace Plastics are located around 5 times EV/EBITDA, against 8.1 times the median valuation of the respective companies in the industry. For 2027 the corresponding multipliers are 4.5x and 6.5xCommonly, Discount It is now approaching 35%.
Smaller capitalisation and lower commerciality justify a discount. But they don't easily explain why a company with an estimated EBITDA CAGR about 10% for 2025-2028, low leverage and dividend yield around 5%-6% must remain so far away from the industry.
The acquisition of BHA Holdings offers another revealing comparison for the current valuation of the group.
The group paid about €14 million For the BHA Holdings, which produces about €EBITDA 2.5 million. The price corresponds approximately to 5.6 times EBITDA. The acquisition also offers a network in Australia and New Zealand, access to new customers and cross-selling potential of the group's products.
The comparison of the two multipliers has its own financial irony.
BHA: purchased at 5.6 times EBITDA.
Thrace Plastics: estimated at around 5 times EBITDA 2026.
That is, the listed one itself had to pay a higher multiple to acquire a smaller company than the dashboard currently recognizes it.
There's a clean spot. The group's equity at the end of 2025 was €277.5 million, while Eurobank calculates them in €287.5 million in 2026; €ECU 298.9 million in 2027 and €311.5 million in 2028.
Against them are today's €216,3 million of stock value.
I do not use book value as an autonomous argument for a higher price. In an industry it matters how efficient capital works and how cash they produce. In this case, however, we have a low stock value against the net position At the same time Eurobank expects ROIC to return to high one-digit rates and FCF to exceed €30 million
The €4,945, the market has pulled the discount so low that group numbers start exposing it.
And we are getting to the point in the report that I think can be done the basic weapon Article 2
Eurobank did reverse engineering at the stock market price. Instead of starting with predictions and reaching value, it began with the value given by the dashboard and sought what long-term profitability is needed to justify this price.
The €5,18 of 14 July, the market was discounting around a sustainable EBIT €25 million, almost 28% lower than Eurobank's 2029 forecast.
Today we are in €4.945.
So the Stock Exchange has become even tighter.
This is the real issue of valuation. In order to prove the current undervalued levels correctly, future economic performance must be significantly worse than Eurobank expects. The cash flow production must be delayed, the return on recent investments to disappoint or the pressure on margins must be large enough to cancel a significant part of the expected increase in EBITDA.
Eurobank uses WACC 9,6%, terminal growth only 1% and long-term conversion of approximately 50% of EBITDA to FCF. With these parameters DCF results in €8 per share, while sensitivity gives range €7,30 to €8,80.
The €4,945, even €7.30 are about 48%The basic value of €8 is located about 62% higher.
A few weeks ago no Piraeus Securities had ended up in €7,10. Now a second stock market, with different model, reaches €8. But the most important thing is behind the two assessments.
Both see a company whose financial capacity is considerably higher than the one that currently invoices the dashboard.
The fundamental assessment is not the only one that raises questions about levels below EUR 5. In the long diagram the share It is turbulent around this area, although the substantial technical resistance is higher, at EUR 5,70, κοντά στα υψηλά του 2023. Η πρόσφατη ανοδική εκτόνωση έχει ήδη απομακρύνει τον τίτλο από τη ζώνη των 4,60 ευρώ και έχει επαναφέρει τους αγοραστές στο προσκήνιο. Το εμπόδιο που μετρά πλέον είναι τα 5,70 ευρώ.
Μια πειστική διάσπαση αυτού του επιπέδου θα άλλαζε αισθητά τη διαγραμματική γεωγραφία της μετοχής. Πάνω από τα 5,70 ευρώ, οι αντιστάσεις αραιώνουν και δημιουργείται ελεύθερο πεδίο για τους ταύρους προς την περιοχή των 7 ευρώ και υψηλότερα, εκεί όπου συναντώνται οι κορυφές της μεγάλης ανοδικής κίνησης του 2021-2022. Το παράδοξο είναι ότι, ενώ οι θεμελιώδεις αποτιμήσεις τοποθετούν ήδη τη μετοχή μεταξύ 7 και 8 ευρώ, το ταμπλό εξακολουθεί να αναλώνεται σε μια αδικαιολόγητη μάχη γύρω από τα 5 ευρώ.
Κάποια στιγμή, όμως, τελειώνουν και οι δικαιολογίες.
Στα €4,945 έχει ήδη χρεώσει στον όμιλο ότι κάτι έχει στραβώσει στα οικονομικά του μεγέθη, δίχως φυσικά τα Πλαστικά Θράκης να της έχουν κάνει μέχρι σήμερα αυτή τη χάρη.
Αν οι ταύροι πάρουν τελικά τα 5,70 ευρώ, τότε θα έχει ενδιαφέρον να δούμε πόσο γρήγορα το ίδιο ταμπλό που σήμερα δυσκολεύεται να αποδεχθεί τα 5 ευρώ θα αρχίσει να τρέχει προς τα 7 ευρώ και άνω.
* Apostolos Manthos is responsible for technical analysis & investment strategy
** The content of the Article may in no way be regarded as advice or suggestion or recommendation or invitation to purchase or sell any share or investment or financial product traded on an organised or non-market.
