By Harry Floodopoulos
A "perfect energy storm" is in full evolution in Europe, revealing in the most emphatic way that the continent's energy security is no longer dependent solely on geopolitics and fuel adequacy. Heat, prolonged drought, low river levels, problems in nuclear and hydroelectric production and weaker production from windy coincides with turbulence in international gas markets, creating an extremely difficult mix.
The message they are now broadcasting on the European energy market is that Europe has been delayed. And that time to enhance the resilience of the electrical system is running out.
Pressure at the same time in demand and supply
The particularly worrying feature of the current situation is that extreme heat strikes both sides of the market simultaneously. On the one hand, it increases the demand for electricity for air conditioning. On the other hand, it limits the availability of production units precisely when the system needs them most.
Thermal production – nuclear, coal and natural gas – is vulnerable to high temperatures, as the warmer cooling water, the low river levels and the decline in unit performance limit production.
In France, the heat-related restrictions are estimated to affect up to 7.3 GW of nuclear power, i.e. about 12% of the country's nuclear fleet. In Poland, about 1.3 GW of carbon production have been put under pressure due to the low level of Vistula, which makes it difficult to cool the plants.
At the same time, drought reduces hydroelectric production, while prolonged high pressure systems can dramatically reduce wind production. In Germany, for example, the production of wind turbines during the current heat wave is predicted to be about 60% lower than seasonal normal levels.
In 'red' Southeast Europe
The problem is even stronger in Southeast Europe, where the energy crisis is deepening. Romania now proceeds to a complete shutdown of the Cernavoda nuclear power plant, as the second reactor, with a power capacity of around 680 MW, is put out due to the further decline of the Danube level and the high temperatures of cooling water.
The first unit, with a power capacity of approximately 650 MW, has been out of service since 31 July. Romania thus loses a total of around 1.35 GW, which corresponds to about 20% of its power supply.
Evolution increases to 48% the percentage of nuclear power out of operation in Southeast Europe, from about 37% previously, even worsening the regional balance.
The pressure is such that the Romanian government has given orders to activate a 310 MW carbonate unit in the Oltenia Energy Complex, and assistance has been requested from the Commission and the ENTSO-E.
Return to expensive natural gas
Restrictions on nuclear and hydroelectric fuels force many European markets to turn more to natural gas. However, this is an extremely bad timing, as the fuel remains exposed to geopolitical turbulence and its prices have again moved over EUR 60/MWh.
In Italy and Spain natural gas power has increased by 28% compared to last year, in France by 89%, in Britain by 12% and in Belgium by 32%.
Thus a vicious cycle is created: heat increases demand, drought limits hydroelectric and nuclear, winds retreat to certain markets and the gap is covered by more expensive thermal units, while natural gas is again faced with a geopolitical premium.
The cost of European delay
The crisis brings Europe's delays in developing infrastructure that could function as a shield against such conditions back to the surface. Energy transition is no longer just about reducing CO2 emissions. It is increasingly about the physical resilience of the electrical system.
The recipe promoted by the market is clear: faster development of photovoltaics, both at self-production level and large scale, acceleration of large battery storage systems, more land wind in Southeast Europe and more RES in the Western Balkans.
It is also considered crucial to strengthen networks and cross-border interconnections so that cheaper electricity can be transferred where there is a deficit, as well as to create demand response protocols for periods of crisis.
Of particular importance is the use of ETS revenues for investments in energy transition, networks, storage, clean technologies and infrastructure resilience.
The speed of implementation of these investments is now turning itself into an energy security parameter.
The Greek exception
Within this setting, Greece is currently showing a much better picture than its neighbourhood. This does not mean that it remains unaffected: the average wholesale price for the first 13 days of August is around EUR 120/MWh, compared to EUR 109,95/MWh in July, recording an increase of around 9%.
However, the distance from the other markets in Central and South-East Europe is great. In the first 13 days of August Italy is around EUR 182/MWh, Slovenia and Slovakia at EUR 152, Hungary at EUR 151, Romania at EUR 150, Austria at EUR 144, Bulgaria at EUR 136 and the Czech Republic at EUR 134/MWh.
Greece, with around 120 euros/MWh, is lower than all the above markets.
The high production of RES plays a defining role in the Greek image. With photovoltaics and wind turbines operating at high levels, green production reaches about 65% of the domestic mixture and 148 GWh, which is the second highest historical on the Greek market after 154 GWh of July 31st.
Natural gas is limited to approximately 59 GWh or 25% of the mixture, hydroelectrics to 11.7 GWh or about 5% and lignite to 9 GWh or 3.8%.
Παράλληλα, η Ελλάδα εξάγει σημαντικές ποσότητες ηλεκτρικής ενέργειας προς τη Βουλγαρία. Η διαφορά των περίπου 43 ευρώ/MWh μεταξύ των δύο αγορών γεμίζει τη διασύνδεση, με αποτέλεσμα να δημιουργείται συμφόρηση και οι υψηλότερες τιμές της βουλγαρικής και κατ’ επέκταση της ρουμανικής αγοράς να μη μεταφέρονται πλήρως στην Ελλάδα.
Αυτό ακριβώς είναι και το μεγάλο μάθημα της τρέχουσας κρίσης. Η μεγάλη διείσδυση ΑΠΕ μπορεί να λειτουργήσει ως ισχυρή ασπίδα απέναντι στις διεθνείς αναταράξεις. Δεν αρκεί όμως από μόνη της.
Η Ελλάδα χρειάζεται ταχύτερη ανάπτυξη αποθήκευσης, ισχυρότερα δίκτυα και νέες διασυνδέσεις, ώστε το σημερινό πλεονέκτημα να αποκτήσει μονιμότερα χαρακτηριστικά. Γιατί η “τέλεια καταιγίδα” που πλήττει σήμερα την Ευρώπη δείχνει τι μπορεί να ακολουθήσει τα επόμενα καλοκαίρια.
Και το βασικό μήνυμα για τις Βρυξέλλες είναι πλέον δύσκολο να αγνοηθεί: κλιματική ανθεκτικότητα, ενεργειακή ασφάλεια, εξηλεκτρισμός και βιομηχανική ανταγωνιστικότητα δεν αποτελούν τέσσερις διαφορετικές πολιτικές. Αποτελούν μία και την ίδια ατζέντα. Και σε αυτή την ατζέντα, η ταχύτητα έχει μετατραπεί σε κρίσιμο παράγοντα ενεργειακής ασφάλειας.
