Under $73 the barrel is retreating today Brent And at $70 the American slow, approaching the prices before the Gulf War exploded.
For the record, on February 27, the day before the war broke out in Iran, Brent's price was about $70 a barrel, to be launched to $120, before retreating to its original level in late June.
This return to normality is «Amazing» as to its speed, notes Patrice Zeofron, Professor of Finance at Paris Dauphine and Director of the Centre for Geopolitical Energy and Raw Materials. «Once the opening of the Strait of Ormuz and the de-escalation between Washington and Tehran seemed reliable, the market very quickly erased the geopolitical risk premium» which had caused the barrel price to be launched, says the French professor.
The fall in oil prices even occurs even if the destruction of oil infrastructure in the Gulf caused concerns about a slower return to normality. «Brent's price responds primarily to expectations of future flows, not only to the immediate physical state of damaged infrastructure »The French teacher continues.
In other words, since the market expects Brent's supplies to return quickly to normality, thanks to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the release of stocks accumulated at its closure, Brent's price may be reduced, along with the level of geopolitical tensions.
In the US peace talks and Iran, although there are no significant points of tension missing, it appears that both sides remain committed to reaching an agreement in the coming weeks.
The pump «resist»
However, fuel prices at the stations have not yet followed Brent's example. Gas prices fall at a much slower rate, and of course they are far from pre-war levels.
«Prices in the pump decrease slower because they depend on a slower natural chain than buying crude oil », explains Patrice Zeofron.
«Refineries pass price reductions with delay, distributors first sell oil stocks purchased at high prices and transport of refining products is delayed, as well as some units remain partially disturbed. This is why we notice a typical lag between the slow Brent and the price in the pump», says the French expert.
What does the president of the EIC say?
«The market continues to move in an environment of intense uncertainty, the president of the Hellenic Oil Trade Association (SEEPE), Giannis Algizakis, appreciated. «We are in a very fragile agreement. A Trump phrase can change prices again. This is a fluid and uncertain environment», noted features. He even pointed out that consumers do not directly see the reductions in international pump prices, as it takes about four days to complete the shift cycle of new prices from refineries to the retail market.
Mr.Aligizakis stressed that in Greece the two refineries reacted in time, diversifying supply sources and using about two million barrels of their reserves, which allowed for the avoidance of shortages or fuel rations, despite significant price increases.
Giannis Algizakis states cautiously optimistic about the course of the oil market, appreciating that, since there is no new geopolitical revival, Brent's price will move to the range of $70-80 per barrel, levels significantly lower than the peaks recorded during the crisis.
Nervous markets
Oil markets also remain nervous. Several incidents of Gulf attacks complicate negotiations and mutual mistrust is high.
«The rate of price drop could be slowed», notes Berenberg Bank , stressing that current stocks are below the average of the last five years: «Low oil reserves should at least limit the further drop potential of crude oil», estimates the analysts of the German bank and add.
Η αγορά συμβολαίων μελλοντικής εκπλήρωσης στο χρηματιστήριο συνήθως προβλέπει την καταναλωτική αγορά, όπως αντικατοπτρίζεται στις τιμές του ντίζελ και της βενζίνης. Η εμπειρία δείχνει ότι όταν οι τιμές χονδρικής του πετρελαίου μειώνονται, οι τιμές στα πρατήρια γενικά μειώνονται αργά.
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